Originally published: . Volume 8, No. 4. Source pages: 2, 3.
Trump may be a bully, but he is not a warrior.
Several mental health professionals have speculated publicly about President Trump's character and fitness for office. They have cited his erratic behavior, callous regard for women, unethical business deals, exaggerated need for approval, lack of tolerance for criticism and flagrant disregard for facts. Some infer that these traits raise concern about his potential for triggering a war. Here we offer a different point of view.
The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. There is little evidence that Donald Trump is prone to solving business and political conflicts through physical violence. His retaliations tend to be verbal and/or legal. It is unlikely that he will be any more physically aggressive — start a war — in an international conflict than he has been in his long history of personal and business disputes.
Candidate and now President Trump appears to be primarily a tactical rather than strategic thinker. He focuses on immediate events and is not strongly committed to long-term political goals. Consider how quickly he "walked back" his initial challenge to the one China policy and his trivialization of the one vs. two-state controversy in the Israel- Palestinian conflict — whatever they figure out….
If President Trump were to perceive a foreign leader as belittling him he would be likely to resort to bombast and insults. If the recipient were a rational actor, war would not be a likely outcome. However, to the extent that actors on the international scene are irrational and conflict-prone, some danger does exist. In such a case, much would depend upon the ability of Trump's associates to persuade Trump to control his impulses, based on past behavior, an uncertain, if not likely, option.
The great looming danger of Trump's threat as President is domestic. His assault on the free press, disrespect for the judiciary, shrugging off of civil rights, and lack of care about the environment are all grounds for great concern.
In the long run, perhaps the most pernicious and corrosive danger is Trump's debasing of the dignity of the office of President. If he continues his long and stable pattern of crude duplicity, reckless disregard for the truth and graceless treatment of others, he will obviate the ability of the presidency to lift our spirits and the capacity of our country to exert moral authority on the world stage.
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